It’s
been over half a century since Frank Drake developed an equation to
estimate the probability of finding intelligent life in our galaxy.
We’ve learned a lot since then, prompting an astrophysicist from MIT to
come up with her own take on the equation. Here’s how the new formula
works — and how it could help in the search for alien life.
The new formula was devised by Sara Seager,
a professor of planetary science and physics at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. I contacted her to learn more about the new
equation and why the time was right for a rethink.
Assessing the Probability of Intelligent Life
Back in
1961, Frank Drake proposed a probabilistic formula to help estimate the
number of active, radio-capable extraterrestrial civilizations in the
Milky Way Galaxy. It goes like this:
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